Comments on Looking two times the distance back to forecast the futureTypePad2008-10-01T13:09:50ZEwan McIntoshhttps://edu.blogs.com/edublogs/tag:typepad.com,2003:https://edu.blogs.com/edublogs/2008/10/looking-two-tim/comments/atom.xml/Ewan McIntosh commented on 'Looking two times the distance back to forecast the future'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451f00f69e201053580382d970c2008-10-11T20:38:50Z2008-10-11T20:38:51ZEwan McIntoshhttp://edu.blogs.comYou read it in Clay Shirky's latest book, Craig, and you're right to like it :-)<p>You read it in Clay Shirky's latest book, Craig, and you're right to like it :-)</p>Craig commented on 'Looking two times the distance back to forecast the future'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451f00f69e2010535779e98970b2008-10-11T19:03:24Z2008-10-11T19:03:25ZCraighttp://tacherdudebbq.blogspot.comWhen the technology gets boring, then things get interesting socially. I can't remember where I read that but I think...<p>When the technology gets boring, then things get interesting socially. I can't remember where I read that but I think we're just getting over the "Oh wow" phase and starting to really see how deeply this technology will change fundamentals.</p>Craig commented on 'Looking two times the distance back to forecast the future'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451f00f69e2010535779e81970b2008-10-11T19:03:01Z2008-10-11T19:03:01ZCraighttp://tacherdudebbq.blogspot.comWhen the technology gets boring, then things get interesting socially. I can't remember where I read that but I think...<p>When the technology gets boring, then things get interesting socially. I can't remember where I read that but I think we're just getting over the "Oh wow" phase and starting to really see how deeply this technology will change fundamentals.</p>Craig commented on 'Looking two times the distance back to forecast the future'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451f00f69e201053580146e970c2008-10-11T19:01:43Z2008-10-11T19:01:43ZCraighttp://tacherdudebbq.blogspot.comWhen the technology gets boring, then things get interesting socially. I can't remember where I read that but I think...<p>When the technology gets boring, then things get interesting socially. I can't remember where I read that but I think we're just getting over the "Oh wow" phase and starting to really see how deeply this technology will change fundamentals.</p>John Connell commented on 'Looking two times the distance back to forecast the future'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451f00f69e201053519e298970c2008-10-01T13:45:20Z2008-10-01T13:45:20ZJohn Connellhttp://www.johnconnell.co.uk/blog/Ewan, Good post. I have to say that I find the S curve model much more persuasive than, for instance,...<p>Ewan,</p>
<p>Good post.</p>
<p>I have to say that I find the S curve model much more persuasive than, for instance, Gartner's Hype Cycle - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle - which tries too hard to fit everything into a single dynamic framework, and often offers mutually contradictory examples.</p>